The Odds-On Favorite: Wrestlemania XXX Odds

Yes, you know you might have a gambling problem when you’re looking for lines on a completely scripted, predetermined event. But every year, online sportsbooks (and some, shall we say “less than legal” live action takers…) will offer up lines on the WWE’s showcase celebration, Wrestlemania.  This year is no different – with eight matches on the PPV card, and almost fifty options to bet on throughout the night, there is a real chance to make some real money. So let’s dive in.

** Expect that the rest of this column may contain spoilers, storylines, and recaps of previous shows.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Delaware. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bovada.LV are accurate as of the time picks were made – Thursday Night. That about covers it.

WWE Diva’s Championship Match

There’s about a 98% chance that this match serves as filler between the Undertaker’s annual match and the Main Event or Events of the evening. There’s a 100% chance that the match will be over in under 10 minutes – probably in under 5, even despite the 10+ divas in the ring.

The odds on the match are pretty straightforward – AJ Lee, the current champion, is -200 to retain her title. She’s currently the longest reigning Diva’s champion of all time, for whatever that’s worth (which isn’t much). The rest of the field is +150 to take the belt away.

I’ll be honest – I generally watch Diva’s matches on mute, so I’m not real clear on all of the storylines here. And they probably don’t really mean much – it’s about time for this belt to switch hands, and give all the Diva’s a new gimmick. It’s like the annual shake-up of the women’s roster.

The Pick: The Field (+150)

The Undertaker (-3000) vs. Brock Lesnar (+900)

This is the easiest money on the board which is why it would require you to drop $3000 just to win $100. The Undertaker will eventually retire (probably very soon), and when he does, he will still have a zero in the Wrestlemania loss column.

The Pick: Undertaker (-3000)

 

The Shield (-800) vs. “Corporate” Kane & The New Age Outlaws (+425)

This is an interesting match from a betting perspective.  The Shield have completely flipped into one of the biggest face groups in recent memory, without changing a single facet of their characters. This storyline was cobbled together after a series of events necessitated the WWE to put someone into a match with three “Authority” figures – and anyone who watched wrestling in the Attitude Era knows how weird it is to call the New Age Outlaws “Authority Figures”. This could actually go either way; a Shield win would produce a great response, propel them even more into the discussion, and probably not surprise too many people. But a Kane/Outlaws win would give the Shield even more “face heat”, and possibly give the Creative team the means to push the Shield to their inevitable breakup (which has been teased for months).

The Pick: Kane & The Outlaws (+425)

“Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal”

This 30-man Battle Royal includes some of the biggest names, and a whole lot of nobodies. Zack Ryder ain’t winning this match. Heath Slater isn’t either. In fact, there are really only about six or seven guys who could win this – although in typical WWE fashion, there are three “mystery” entrants yet to be named.  If one of those entrants happens to be Hulk Hogan, then all bets are off.  (Translation – cover your bets with the 75/1 “Field” option).

The Big Show (2/1): It’s pretty easy to see the parallels here. The Big Show is a modern day Andre. A giant with a big heart (figuratively… and probably literally). Big Show is probably participating in one of his two or three final Wrestlemania matches – this would be a nice way to begin the retirement tour.

Alexander Rusev (7/4): He’s looking more and more like he’s about to get a huge push from creative – this would be a great first step.

Sheamus (6/1): He needs something to keep him in the conversation. Otherwise, he’s just the pasty white Irish guy who never gets to hold a belt again.

Big E (18/1): He’s currently holding the Intercontinental Championship (pending a dark match before the PPV begins). He’s gotten a great push in the last six months, and this would just push him further.

Alberto del Rio (14/1): Mostly because we need an established heel as an option, but del Rio needs to get out of the rut he’s been in since WWE made the decision to only have one main champion, and this – while not a belt – would at least give him something to say. Like how Booker T called himself “King Booker” for years after winning the King of the Ring tournament in 2006.

Rey Mysterio (14/1): I’ll be stunned if this doesn’t come down to Mysterio and Big Show. WWE loves to use the “Biggest little man” mantle for Mysterio, and probably even more so now that the original Sin Cara has been released.

Brad Maddox (75/1): I didn’t even know he was involved until I looked at the odds, but having the current “General Manager” of RAW walk out of this match with a win would be a classic villain move.

Field (75/1): There are actually odds set for almost all 30 of the participants, but I’m not listing them here. Nobody else deserves a mention (withe the possible exception of Dolph Ziggler at 6/1), but the Field bet will absolutely cover your ass in the event that some celebrity or Hall of Famer shows up and makes a farce of this whole exercise. Or, that they use this match as a point for CM Punk to end his “hiatus”…

The Pick: Big Show (2/1) and The Field (75/1). Take them both – obviously, you don’t need as big a bet on the Field to make a profit as you would on The Big Show.

Fatal Four Way Tag Team Championship

There are four tag teams involved in this. Two of them have no chance at winning (Los Matadores at +600, and Rybaxel at +250). One of those – Rybaxel – shouldn’t even be involved in this. They should be in the Battle Royal, and the Rhodes Brothers should be in here. But this will come down to the current champs The Uso Brothers (-250) and The Real Americans (+175).

As much fun as The Usos are, and even with their pedigree (they are the sons of former superstar Rikishi – which makes me feel incredibly old), the fans have completely gotten behind The Real Americans, despite their obviously heel character storyline, heel manager, heel music, and heel personalities. The fact is, Jack Swagger and Antonio Cesaro are two of the best performers in the WWE, and their manager gives them a bona fide mouthpiece to sustain a long-term championship run.

The Pick: The Real Americans (+175)

Bray Wyatt (-350) vs. John Cena (+225)

Another interesting, hard to call match. John Cena is not exactly untouchable at Wrestlemania – he lost just two years ago to The Rock in the WM28 Main Event. Bray Wyatt and The Wyatt Family is one of the best gimmicks WWE has working right now – I would’ve loved them to reprise the Elimination Chamber match that they had with The Shield just six weeks ago on Sunday rather than seeing this match.  But since this is what we’re presented with, this is what we get to bet on.

Honestly, I think this could be a pretty solid match, as long as Cena doesn’t go into full “Hulk” mode, and actually allows Bray to get over on him. The only way this match can logically end is with a Bray Wyatt win – the Wyatt Family has way too much momentum going for them right now for Creative to completely shut them down at the feet of John Cena.  Right?

The Pick: Bray Wyatt (-350)

Daniel Bryan (-2000) vs. Triple H (+800)… AND

WWE World Heavyweight Championship Match: Bryan (-700) / Randy Orton (+750) / Batista (+1000) / Triple H (+1200)

So, if you don’t know the story going in, allow me a quick recap:

Randy Orton currently holds both main title belts. Orton’s held at least one belt since Triple H screwed Daniel Bryan over and cost Bryan the title at last year’s SummerSlam PPV.

Batista returned at the Royal Rumble just in time to pimp a new movie and get a main event at Wrestlemania (not mutually exclusive events), and immediately went full heel. If he walks out of Wrestlemania with two belts over his shoulders, a lot of people are going to be very, very pissed off.

Daniel Bryan has grabbed every ounce of momentum available to him, taking the “People’s Champ” role that CM Punk vacated when he walked out of the WWE months ago. He’s been “screwed” by the people in power for almost a year now, and this is the logical – if unsurprising – time for him to be rewarded with the title and pay off all the fans who stuck behind him and put up with a bunch of shitty storylines.

Triple H is the real-life COO of the WWE, and has never once passed on an opportunity to bring the spotlight right back around to him even at the detriment of every other member of the WWE roster. There is no doubt in my mind that he will find a way into the title match.

So… where does that leave us?  Well, there will be a match early in the PPV between HHH & Bryan. The winner of that match will be added to the Main Event title match, turning it into a Triple Threat. Every single fan of the WWE expects Daniel Bryan to win that match (hence the -2000 line), and every single fan is terrified that HHH is going to try to steal it.

After much discussion with some of the other wrestling fans on these pages, here’s the conclusion we’ve all come to:

HHH is going to win the first match in some dishonest fashion (I’m thinking a surreptitious sledgehammer shot while wife Stephanie McMahon distracts the referee).  Take HHH in the singles match, and enjoy that +800 return.

Then, Wrestlemania “Guest Host” Hulk Hogan will emerge from the back to admonish Trips for his deception, and tell everyone that Daniel Bryan should be in the Main Event for a title shot. The Superdome crowd will eat it up. The PPV crowd will eat it up. HHH still gets to play the heel and absorb the Main Event spotlight. Hulk Hogan gets to save the day again.

And in that Main Event title match, Daniel Bryan finally gets retribution for getting screwed over for the past two years. From his 11-second Wrestlemania 28 title loss, to the past twelve months of getting stepped on, insulted, pushed down, and blatantly screwed out of a title, Bryan gets his belts, and the crowd gets their “Go Home Happy” moment.

Unless of course, the main event ends with HHH beating the hell out of Orton & Batista, and then laying down for a Bryan pin before introducing Daniel Bryan as the new “Corporate Champion”, then breaking out an electric razor to shave Bryan’s beard.  That scenario – while incredibly devious, would probably be one of the biggest “Holy Shit” payoffs in recent WWE memory.

Too bad it (probably) won’t happen.

The Picks: HHH in the Singles match (+800), Daniel Bryan in the title match (-700)

  • s1rweeze

    I quit following wrestling cold turkey this past fall (deleted all bookmarks, stopped reading anything entirely), so I’m uh… a bit mystified at Cena facing Bray friggin Wyatt. Cena/Undertaker was the only thing that could’ve gotten any interest from me as Cena’s the only REAL threat left to the streak. I’d say “what a waste” but what do I know.

    • http://Www.thevictoryformation.com Big D

      If they didn’t let Michaels or HHH break the streak, nobody will.

      • cabbage

        In the words of Roddy Piper, “Just when you think you know all of the answers, I change the questions.”

  • http://www.thevictoryformation.com Big D

    This was an impressive level of fail, even for me. The only match I got picked correctly was Bryan to win the title. Though, I’m taking credit for Cesaro’s win in the Battle Royal as a 75/1 “Field” bet, as he was one of the 3 unannounced stars to enter the match, and got the win.

    Wish I’d maxxed out the $100 bet limit on that one…

  • Knightro

    RIP Ultimate Warrior. This one’s for you: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!