The Odds-On Favorite: 2013 NFL Picks – Week 14

Ho – Lee – Fook.  Last week was the best single week of picks I’ve ever had, going 12-3-1 in the sixteen games of Week 13. I’ve got no idea where that came from, and I doubt it’ll ever happen again.  But for now, I’m just going to bask in the glory that was my Week 13 picks.

Hell, I shouldn’t even bother making picks the rest of the year.  I mean, how can I possibly top that?  Nobody picks every game right (except Miz).  But no, I’m going to continue the effort.  After the past few seasons, I’d like to see if I could get back to the 20 or 30 games over .500 that I was accustomed to many years ago…

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Delaware. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from SBRForums are accurate as of the time picks were made – Thursday night. That about covers it.

Thursday – JAGUARS (+3) over Texans:

Pretty solid start to the week.

Chiefs (-3) over REDSKINS: RG3 is still a plenty good QB, which could easily continue the Chiefs’ trend of falling apart against actual NFL quarterbacks. But then again… he’s no Peyton Manning.

RAVENS (-6.5) over Vikings: This line is actually a bit higher than I’d like – I’d feel a lot better getting Baltimore at -4.5, or even easing them down to essentially a Pick’Em. But still, Minnesota is pretty terrible – last week notwithstanding.

PATRIOTS (-11.5, -525) over Browns: There was never really a doubt that this would be the biggest line of the week, especially once word started spreading that either career washout Caleb Hanie or trick-shot wunderkind Alex Tanney might manage to make the start for the Browns. Against a Bill Belichick defense. On the road. In sub-freezing weather… should I go on? Good luck finding someone to take this action until Sunday though – with all the QB questions around Cleveland, nobody wants to touch it.

Raiders (+3.5) over JETS: I’m not at all confident in this pick.  Oakland is a lousy team, and has the whole “West coast coming East for a 1pm game” thing going against them.  But still… Geno Smith.

BENGALS (-6) over Colts: Normally, I wouldn’t put too much stock into a dome team playing outdoors on the road, but then I remembered that most of the country is going to be in the single digits on Sunday, and that’s gotta be good for a few points. Especially with a strong Cincy defense.

SAINTS (-2.5) over Panthers: This is where the Carolina run ends. That’s going to be a rowdy crowd in the Superdome, especially after the curbstomping the Saints took in Seattle last Monday night.

Lions (+3.5) over EAGLES: Calling My Shot: Megatron is breaking the single game receiving yards record this week.  And the Over/Under of 53.5 will be passed before the 4th quarter.

STEELERS (-3) over Dolphins: If this isn’t a classic, Pittsburgh-type of “grind it out” victory, with steam coming off of player’s heads and opposing lines blowing smoke at each other with every breath… Alright, the imagery is probably influencing the pick a little bit, but still – when was the last time the Dolphins won a game in conditions like Pittsburgh is expecting this weekend?

BUCS (-1.5) over Bills: Can you believe the Bucs are probably not going to finish last in the NFC South?

BRONCOS (-11) over Titans: Quite a few sites have this line as high as -13, but I like it a whole lot more at this number.  I like it even more when I tease it down by six, alone with New England, Oakland and Baltimore…

CARDINALS (-6) over Rams: Arizona is probably going to miss out on a playoff spot this year because of how quickly Carolina became a contender, but they’re got a lot to build on.  Imagine if they’d been able to poach a backup QB like Nick Foles before the season started.

CHARGERS (-3) over Giants: This might be the stupidest line on the board to me.  So of course the Giants will probably win outright.

Seahawks (+3) over 49ERS: Alright, I get the whole “Divisional game… tough opponent… road trip” mentality. But Seattle is leaps and bounds ahead of every other team in the NFC. They beat San Fran by 26 points earlier this year (albeit in Seattle).  In fact, they’re only hiccup was a road trip to Indianapolis, that they almost came back to win. Seattle probably won’t lose to an NFC team this year.

PACKERS (-2.5) over Falcons: Only one site is offering a spread on this game, and considering the murky news surrounding Aaron Rodgers, it’s not really a surprise. In either case, I don’t like the idea of the Falcons, on the road, in what might be -10 degree weather before the wind chill kicks in.  And it will kick in…

Cowboys (+1.5) over BEARS: And here I’ll contradict myself, and back a road team in what are likely to be even worse weather conditions. But… (and I can’t believe I’m about to type this) … I trust Tony Romo a lot more than Matt Ryan this year.

RECAP: JAGUARS / Chiefs / RAVENS / PATRIOTS / Raiders / BENGALS / SAINTS / Lions / STEELERS / BUCS / BRONCOS / CARDINALS / CHARGERS / Seahawks / PACKERS / Cowboys

Season Record: 101-83-10 after Week 13

One thought on “The Odds-On Favorite: 2013 NFL Picks – Week 14

  1. Raiders (+3.5) over JETS: I’m not at all confident in this pick. Oakland is a lousy team, and has the whole “West coast coming East for a 1pm game” thing going against them. But still… Geno Smith.

    As a Jets fan who actually watched quite a bit of the Jets the last two weeks, I would be pretty confident. Jets don’t score more than 10 points and are good to give up at least one turnover deep in Raiders territory. I have a friend who is a big Raiders fan and wanted to go see them play. I told him if he isn’t paying under 50% of face value, then he is overpaying for tickets.

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